Dennis Arthur asked:


Similar to the Playoffs, early season games need to be handicapped much differently than those played after around Week 3 of the regular season–when it comes to using situational methods.

One of the biggest challenges at this stage of the season comes from the lack of useful data from recently played contests.

Unfortunately, pre-season games have never been a good indicator of what lies in store for a team in the first few weeks of the regular season. The large number of players that see playing time in the pre-season who are eventually cut or relegated to 2nd or 3rd team status does not help, nor does the fact that marquee QB’s and other important players often only take the field for a handful of plays in the earlier games, if at all.

All is not lost; however, as there are key stats from the previous season that can lend real insight into games played in the early part of the following year, and there is also the previous history between the 2 teams involved that one can consider (more on this later).

One key stat from the past season that works very well as a handicapping tool in the early part of the following one is Pythagorean Win Percentage.

Pythagorean Win Percentage (PWP) was first developed by sabermetrics-pioneer Bill James as a method of removing the effects of ‘luck’ from a baseball team’s won/lost record by focusing solely on runs for and runs against. The formula actually works equally well for the National Football League after a few minor ‘tweaks’, the most significant of which entails using Points For and Against in its calculation as opposed to ‘runs’.

By comparing a team’s PWP with their actual winning percentage, it becomes easy to ascertain which teams have had an over-abundance of either good, or bad misfortune–knowledge which has obvious implications for those of us trying to handicap current games based on past performance.

PWP, as it applies to Major League Baseball, has seen a number of improvements since James first came up with the idea and more advanced formula’s now consider not just runs themselves, but also the ratio of singles, doubles, homeruns etc. that went into producing these runs, along with alternate multipliers depending on the different ball-parks where the scoring occurred.

Some of these improvements do not apply so much to the game of North American football, where the field of play is obviously identical from stadium to stadium, and the original formula that James developed for MLB remains a simple, yet accurate method of calculating a team’s winning percentage that is often more reliable than won/lost records alone.

The formula for calculating PWP for NFL teams is as follows:

Points For ^ 2.37 / (Points For ^ 2.37 + Points Against ^ 2.37)

An exponent of 2.37 has been found to provide the most accurate results for the NFL while 1.83 is the most commonly used exponent for MLB teams. This formula even works when applied to NBA teams, where an exponent of between 14 and 16 is prevalent.

In order to best explain exactly how this formula works, it’s probably best to look at a couple of examples from the past season.

The New England Patriots are an example of a team who actually ‘overachieved’ in 2007, when their won/lost record of 16-0 is compared against their PWP.

Anyone who watched the Pats-Ravens game in Week 15 and to a lesser extent, their regular season finale against the NY Giants, would probably agree that New England could have easily ended the season at 15-1 or 14-2 and their PWP shows that either of these records would actually have been more indicative of their level of play in ‘07.

Based on their Points For of 589 and Points Against of 274, New England’s PWP works out to 0.860 (589 ^ 2.37 / (589 ^ 2.37 + 274 ^ 2.37)).

Given their WP to PWP differential of +0.140 (1.000 - 0.860) it appears that New England was in fact, luckier than most teams in the league last year-an opinion that Ray Lewis and the rest of the Ravens would certainly not argue.

An example of a team that underachieved in 2007 would be the Philadelphia Eagles, who finished the year at 8-8, yet, had a PWP of 0.567 (336 ^ 2.37 / (336 ^ 2.37 + 300 ^ 2.37)), leading us to believe that they were perhaps more deserved of a 9-7 record.

So, how does a team’s PWP from the previous season figure into the process of handicapping games early in the next one?

One interesting use for this stat involves teams that had a PWP < 0.450 in the previous season, that also happened to have beaten their current opponent SU in their past meeting (as long as this meeting occurred within the past 4 years). Teams in this situation are a dismal 33-60 ATS (35.5%) since 1994 in the first 2 weeks of the regular season immediately following.

As I mentioned near the top of this article, past history between the 2 teams in question is important early on in the season and in this case, teams with a weak PWP from the previous season that are also facing an opponent that may be seeking revenge for a relatively recent defeat, creates a potent combination that has spelt trouble versus the line over the past 14 years.

While a situation with a record of 33-60 ATS is profitable enough, there is one other Secondary condition concerning the past meeting between these 2 teams that when added, greatly reduces the number of games involved while maintaining a similar level of profit.

This condition concerns teams that not only won in the last meeting, but, did so in convincing fashion (at least offensively anyway).

When we only include teams that scored at least 30 points in this game, the record for this situation drops to a crushing 5-28 ATS (15.2%) for a tidy profit of $2,250.00 when wagering $110.00 to win back $100.00 against the team in question.

The final Secondary condition that I like to add for this trend involves something I touched on earlier, and that is, the comparison of a team’s actual winning percentage with their Pythagorean winning percentage.

Teams that meet the criteria discussed so far that also had a SU winning percentage at least 0.100 points higher than their PWP last season have been a perfect 3-0 ATS, so, by eliminating teams that outperformed their PWP by a wide margin in the previous season (i.e., New England), we are left with a trend that has been 2-28 ATS since 1994.

Here are all the details.

(Notes: ASMR stands for Average Spread Margin Rating. A positive rating indicates a trend that is stronger than average versus the line, negative–weaker than average. TDIS% is the percentage of teams in the league that have been involved in this situation at one time or another. WT% is the percentage of teams that are .500 or better and SPR is the average spread for teams in this situation. For more details, please consult Page 13 of my 2008 NFL Game Sheets Guide.)

System #18 Summary

Primary Conditions (Building Blocks)

1) Game is being played in Week 1 or 2 of the regular season.

2) Last Seasons Pythagorean Win% < .450.

3) Straight-up win versus this Opponent in their Last Meeting (LM4).

Secondary Conditions (Tighteners)

1) Exclude Teams with a SU WP at least 0.100 points higher than their PWP LS.

2) Points For >= 30 in their Last Meeting (LM4).

System Stats

ASMR: +1.7

Home%: 62.5

Dog%: 56.3

TDIS%: 56.3

WT%: 68.8

SPR: +1.1

Top Teams: CIN(4); NO(4); ATL(2); BUF(2)

System Record

Overall (Since ‘94): 2-28 ATS

2007 Season: 0-1 ATS

2006 Season: 0-1 ATS

2005 Season: 0-4 ATS

2004 Season: 0-2 ATS

Last 3 Results. Pick in Brackets.

2007 WK2–DET 20 MIN 17 (MIN +3) P

2007 WK1–MIN 24 ATL 3 (ATL +3) L

2006 WK2–NO 34 GB 27 (GB +2) L



Yvonne

Paul Mroczka asked:


It was just over a year ago, after the Colts lost to the Pats in their post-season contest, that Boomer Esiason said on national television, “I think maybe Peyton (Manning) is this generation’s Dan Marino.” Esiason went on to state that Manning “is a great football player, but he’s not going to get to the Super Bowl, I’m telling you, not with that defense.”

Marino, who was on the set, took umbrage at the reference and shot back, “Oh, wait a minute. I got to a Super Bowl.” Marino made a good point, but still, Esiason seemed to be on target by not blaming either quarterback for their failings but, rather, the guys on the other side of the ball-their weak defenses.

Fast forward to January 15, 2006, almost exactly a year to the date that Esiason made his comments. What was different this time for Peyton Manning and the Colts? The Colts seemed to have the full package-a great running and passing attack, a solid offensive line, and a fine defense. Everything was aligned for Manning-Mania to take full effect, especially after such a spectacular regular season.

But once again, under the glare of the national spotlight, in a huge playoff game, and under the kind of pressure he had rarely seen all season, Peyton Manning crumbled. This latest derailment of the Colt’s Super Bowl Express drew a barrage of disparaging comments from many writers and commentators, including the NY Times’ William C. Rhoden. Two days after the loss, Rhoden dubbed Manning “the king of statistics but the prince of NFL quarterbacks” in that although he can generate statistics, he may be incapable of closing the deal and ever bringing a championship to Indianapolis.

No matter how much you respect Peyton Manning and his amazing regular season performances, it’s difficult to argue with the facts. In eight seasons the Colt QB has led his team to the playoffs six times where he is 3-6. In those nine games he’s hit for 15 TDs, while throwing 8 INTs and being sacked 13 times. There are quarterbacks, most recently Tom Brady, who usually manage to rise to the occasion in the big game, ably dealing with a panoply of adversity. And then there are those like Manning, usually able to run like finely tuned, precision machines, which means when everything is copacetic they hum along but let something like a blitz throw off their rhythm and they breakdown.

Some people point out that maybe he has too much control over the offense, constantly changing and adjusting plays at the line of scrimmage, and when things go awry it’s almost impossible for Manning to adapt. Others claim that he simply can’t handle the pressure of a big game situation. Some blame others on the team. After losing to the Steelers this post-season, Peyton Manning did something he’s never done before; point the finger at his teammates.

Then there’s Peyton’s younger brother Eli, who just finished his second NFL season and his first professional post-season. Against the Carolina Panthers Eli Manning completed 10 of 18 passes, threw three interceptions, was sacked four times and lost one fumble as the Giants were humbled by their opponents 23 to zip. At one point in the game it seemed as if Eli Manning thought his job was to get the ball to the Panthers as boos echoed throughout Giants Stadium and fans hustled for the exits.

Coolness under pressure-is this a Manning characteristic? Or do Peyton and Eli share some sort of panic gene? For Eli it’s simply too early to tell and with Peyton, there’s still time left to turn the tide.

Perhaps one should ask, “What would dad and former NFL QB Archie Manning do?” There’s no answer to that question-in 15 NFL seasons Archie never came close to making it to the playoffs.

Time will tell what the true legacy of the Manning brothers will be. Dan Marino-Move over?



Edward

Al Terry asked:


ork Jets is one of the most popular football team in the United States of America. Whenever the team plays, the NY Jets Tickets sell like hot cakes. The New York Jets is a professional American football team that is based in the New York Metropolitan area. The team plays in the National Football League (NFL) under the Eastern Division of the American Football Conference (AFC). The home stadium of the team is Giants Stadium located at East Rutherford, New Jersey.

NY Jets History

The team was established in the year 1960. However, initially, they started playing under the name of New York Titans as a charter member of the American Football League. The team was renamed as New York Jets in the year 1963 when Sonny Werblin bought the team. After the AFL-NFL Merger, the team joined the NFL in 1970. You must book your NY Jets Tickets in advance to get your favorite seat.

Championships

If we talk about the League Championships, the team has won the AFL-NFL Super Bowl Championships just once – in the year 1968.

They have not won any Conference Championship so far.

However, they have won the Division Championships four times – in 1998 and 2002 while playing as a part of AFC East; and in 1968 and 1969 while playing as a part of AFL East.

Reality Bytes

The nickname of the team is Gang Green.

The colors of the team’s uniform include Hunter Green and White.

The NY Jets have the honor of being the first team to defeat an NFL club in an AFL-NFL World Championship Game. They achieved this honor after defeating the Baltimore Colts in Super Bowl III.

Notable Players

The Pro Football Hall of Famers from this team include Art Monk (WR, 1994), Ronnie Lott (DB, 1993-94), John Riggins (RB, 1971-75), Joe Namath (QB, 1965-76), Don Maynard (WR, 1960-72), and Weeb Ewbank (coach, 1963-73).

The Retired numbers include 73 Joe Klecko, 13 Don Maynard, and 12 Joe Namath.

Team Personnel

Eric Mangini is the head coach of the team.

Mike Tannenbaum is the general manager.

Woody Johnson is the owner of the team’s franchise.

Giants Stadium

Giants Stadium is the sports arena where the NY Jets play all its home games. The name of this stadium has been taken from the name of the other team that also plays its home games here – that team is New York Giants. The stadium is also popularly known as “The Meadowlands”. The maximum capacity of this stadium is 80,242 NY Jets tickets for a professional football match.

History Of The Team’s Home Arenas

Since their establishment in the year 1960, The NY Jets have changed their home stadiums three times. During the initial years from 1960 to 1963, they had been playing their home games in Polo Grounds. From 1964 to 1983, they played in Shea Stadium. It is only since 1984 that the team started playing at the Giants Stadium. They have not changed their home stadium since then.

If you want to get the best deal in NY Jets tickets, you are recommended to buy your tickets only from an authorized ticket broker.

Hector

Jason H asked:


It will be interesting to see the Giants trying to bring down a god this Super Bowl.

Larry