Karol Lucan asked:


PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (10-6 SU, 9-7 ATS): His personal problems behind him, Head Coach Andy Reid should lead the Eagles to their seventh playoff appearance in the last nine years. Returning from injury and motivated by the drafting of Houston QB Kevin Kolb, Donovan McNabb will be the key to Philadelphia’s offensive success. RB Brian Westbrook is nothing if not versatile and the offensive line had all five starters play all 16 games last year. The Eagles attack on defense, blitzing as much as any team in the league. The corners can handle that pressure but Philadelphia needs to upgrade its rush defense, ranked 26th in the NFL last year, to make a playoff run.

By the Numbers (Regular Season, 1998-2006)

SU: 83-61

ATS: 80-59-5

HF: 23-23-1

HD: 13-9-3

AF: 18-11

AD: 26-17-1

Sportsbook Buster: The Eagles are a stellar 8-1 ATS versus the Vikings, who they play in Minnesota, Oct. 28.

Sports Betting Angle: Philadelphia is 11-1 ATS the week after playing the NY Giants. This year’s post Giants foes are the Jets (Oct. 14) and the Cowboys (Dec. 16).

DALLAS COWBOYS (9-7 SU, 8-8 ATS): Taskmaster Bill Parcells has retired, turning over the reigns to easy-going Wade Phillips, who earned his reputation forming the San Diego defense. Indeed, Dallas should be more aggressive (and more productive) in the Phillips 3-4, than under Parcells, who was more conservative. On offense, there’s a question whether QB Tony Romo can rebound from a devastating playoff loss (the botched field goal hold in Seattle) and whether WR Terrell Owens can be placated. Julius Jones and Marion Barber form a tough running tandem but the line is just average. The Cowboys should be in the wild card hunt.

By the Numbers (Regular Season, 1998-2006)

SU: 67-77

ATS: 69-69-6

HF: 25-21-4

HD: 14-7

AF: 8-11

AD: 23-28

Sportsbook Buster: Their last six meetings, the Cowboys are 0-5-1 ATS versus the Giants, who they play Sept. 9 and Nov. 11.

Sports Betting Angle: Dallas is 4-15 ATS versus non-conference foes on the road.

NEW YORK GIANTS (8-8 SU, 8-8 ATS): The pressure is on Head Coach Tom Coughlin and QB Eli Manning to produce. Coughlin, not the most popular of coaches, needs Manning to improve on his 18-24 TD to interception ratio. That might be difficult now that RB Tiki Barber (1,662 yards rushing) has retired and the offensive line lost Luke Petitgout. Jeremy Shockey is a gifted tight end while Plaxico Burress and Amani Toomer (if the latter is healthy after ACL surgery) are competent wideouts. On defense, the Giants must address problems in their secondary but new coordinator Steve Spagnuolo hopes to minimize that concern with a strong pass rush. Manning will have to have a big year for New York to reach the playoffs.

By the Numbers (Regular Season, 1998-2006)

SU: 73-71

ATS: 69-73-1

HF: 23-29-1

HD: 8-10

AF: 15-9

AD: 23-23-1

Sportsbook Buster: The Giants have covered three straight against the Jets, who they play Oct. 7.

Sports Betting Angle: New York is 10-2 as an underdog against the AFC East.

WASHINGTON REDSKINS (5-11 SU, 5-10-1 ATS): Jason Campbell got the call in week 11 and now has the job at quarterback but will Washington open it up or play it tight this year? The return of Clinton Portis, who missed the final seven weeks of the season with a broken hand, and the return of Ladell Betts (1,154 yards rushing) suggest that the Redskins will be primarily a running team. If Campbell wants to throw, TE Chris Cooley and wideouts Santana Moss and Antwaan Randle El, are quality targets. The Washington defense, which ranked 31st in the NFL last season and set a league record for fewest turnovers (12) in a 16-game schedule needs to improve dramatically if the Redskins are to climb out of the NFC East basement.

By the Numbers (Regular Season, 2002-2006)

SU: 65-79

ATS: 66-73-5

HF: 18-23-2

HD: 12-15

AF: 8-11-1

AD: 27-18-1

Sportsbook Buster: The Redskins have failed to cover six straight games against the Packers, who they play in Green Bay, Oct. 14.

Sports Betting Angle: Washington has been an adept road underdog, a position in which the team is likely to find itself seven or eight times this season.

Legend:

SU = Straight Up

ATS = Against the Spread

HF = Home Favorite

HD = Home Underdog

AF = Away Favorite

AD = Away Underdog

Fifth of an eight-part NFL betting preview series

Next: Analyzing the NFC North



Jamie

David Lee Buster asked:


A New York City NY vacation just has to be something everyone does in their lifetime. Imagine never getting to enjoy a New York City NY vacation!

If you are thinking of taking a trip to the Big Apple, then you should know that you are definitely making the right decision. Being the most populous city in the United States, it is the world center for finance, politics, communications, music, fashion and culture. It is home to an unrivaled collection of museums, galleries, restaurants, night clubs, bars and incredible architecture.

The city that never sleeps is the nickname for this special place because at any time during the night you can go out into the city that really does never close down. On your New York City NY vacation, you can go out whenever you want during the morning, noon, or night and you will not be alone.

Getting around during your New York City NY vacation is absolutely not a problem. The Metropolitan Transit Authority runs all of the subways and buses in the city. Over four million people ride the subway every day and you can take a ride for two dollars. Although if you prefer not to ride the subway, you can hail one of the 13,000 yellow cabs that will be happy to take you anywhere you want to go. The average trip in a NYC yellow cab costs about nine dollars.

If you are planning a New York City NY vacation, you will only have the problem of how to choose from the hundreds of attractions available to you. From the Empire State Building, Chrysler Building and Brooklyn Bridge to Times Square, Little Italy and Chinatown, you can be part of attractions you have only seen on TV or in the movies. From Radio City Music Hall, a Broadway play and the American Museum of Natural History to the Statue of Liberty, Central Park and Rockefeller Center, there will be so much to do and see that you may have trouble deciding what you want.

If you want to reflect on the past and share a prayer or quiet moment with those lost in the tragedies of 9/11, the area around Ground Zero is open to the public. A walkway and a large fence prevents anyone from actually being able to enter the site, but you can easily view the area from the east, south and north sides.

And the food, always about the food! You can start the day with a real bagel and your favorite topping. With literally thousands of places to dine in the city, whatever you desire is here waiting for you. Want to eat out on a budget? No problem! Check out any one of the hundreds of Manhattan deli food bars where you serve yourself and pay based on the weight of your selections.

Enjoy sports? There is always a professional team playing in the NYC area such as the Yankees or Mets, the Jets or Giants, the Knicks, Liberty or Nets and the Rangers. The NBA store is located on Fifth Avenue in Midtown Manhattan and ESPN can be found in Times Square just for starters.

Where to stay while on your New York City NY vacation? Have you considered staying in one of the vacation rental apartments? Or how about one of the many available suite hotel rentals? While rooms in NYC are smaller than in many other cities, you and your family or friends can be so much more comfortable in a place with a kitchenette and private bedrooms. And the price may pleasantly surprise you.

No matter when you plan to take a New York City NY vacation, check out the many wonderful things to do and places to stay while you are visiting this very special place.

Copyright 2007 InfoSearch Publishing



Jane

Robert W. Macdonald asked:


Being an entrepreneur is simply living a business life as it should be led.

Mention the word entrepreneur and most folks conjure up an image of a wild dreamer who goes into business by the seat of his pants and risks all to make some elusive pipe dream come true. Nothing could be further from the truth.

The word entrepreneur was gifted to us by the French (along with wine, mayonnaise, and arrogance). It comes from the French word entreprendre, which simply means to undertake or to set out on a new mission or venture. As you can see, nothing in that description harkens any visions of high-stakes gambling or wild-eyed schemes to turn a buck.

Sure, there are those over-the-top entrepreneurs who perpetuate that swashbuckling image. Guys like Sir Richard Branson exude the sort of swaggering, risk-taking conduct that the term entrepreneur usually evokes. Branson, of course, is the founder of Virgin Records and an eclectic stable of pubescent virgins: Virgin Atlantic Airways, Virgin Mobil,Virgin Blue,Virgin Cola,Virgin Express,Virgin America, and so on.

One minute Branson’s risking millions of dollars founding a new company, and the next he’s risking life and limb setting a world powerboat record or attempting a transglobal hot-air balloon flight. I can almost see Brad Pitt reprising the Branson role now.

Will the Real Entrepreneur Please Stand?

The image of the entrepreneur as a daring adventurer who recklessly gambles with his life and fortune is grossly inaccurate. Historically, we think of such luminaries as Henry Ford,Thomas Edison, and J. Pierpont Morgan as the epitome of the entrepreneur. More contemporary figures include Steve Jobs, the Apple entrepreneur; Bill Gates, the tycoon of computer operating systems; or Fred Smith, the founder of FedEx. These are the kind of entrepreneurs that management consultant and author Peter Drucker had in mind when he said “an entrepreneur always searches for change, responds to it, and exploits it as an opportunity” (Innovation and Entrepreneurship, New York, NY: Harper Collins, 1993).

These business entrepreneurs and others like them had strong beliefs about a market opportunity and were willing to accept what others viewed as a high level of personal, professional, or financial risk to pursue that opportunity. They all understood that the real risk for a true entrepreneur is in not taking the risk of success because the true risk is in not risking. It would be a mistake to limit our concept of the entrepreneur to these business giants. The true entrepreneur is not defined by the size of the empire, but by the style of the emperor. By that I mean that you can be an entrepreneur by running a mail room just as much as by starting a FedEx. An individual managing a computer department can be just as entrepreneurial as Bill Gates. The guy who owns a gas station can be just as much of an entrepreneur as the guy who started Ford Motors.

A true entrepreneur is not determined by the measure of his or her results, but by how those results were attained. Being an entrepreneur is more about attitude than aptitude. There have been some very talented business managers who failed because they failed the test of entrepreneurialism. (We call them bureaucrats.) Likewise, there have been some people with very little apparent talent who achieve remarkable success as entrepreneurs. (These types are usually abysmal failures in a bureaucratic world.)

Entrepreneurialism is a way of living life, not a way of managing life. The real entrepreneur has a certain spirit, an élan and an approach to issues that is just different. And that is the key. In a system that demands sameness, the entrepreneur is willing to be different. Only by being different can things be made better. That is the philosophy at the heart of being an entrepreneur.

Taking this approach, a more useful definition of an entrepreneur might be this: “An entrepreneur is an individual with the experience to recognize an opportunity, the inherent instinct to visualize its fulfillment, and the courage to reach for it. An entrepreneur is, by nature, a leader who has the talent to clearly, simply, consistently, and relentlessly communicate his vision to employees and to others; one who can motivate others to be successful because they believe it is in their own best interest to do so. And it is.” Although I used the masculine tense in this definition, an entrepreneur can be male or female, young or old.

Using this definition, then, “an entrepreneurial culture consists of a group of individuals who have suppressed individual interests in an effort to achieve group success because group success will advance their individual interests.”

These are pretty solid definitions but the devil is in the details — the actual practice of instituting an entrepreneurial culture in your job, your department, or your business. The good news is that entrepreneurs are made not born. The better news is that anyone with the right desire and commitment can achieve success as an entrepreneur. The secret to being a good entrepreneur lies in the simplicity of the concept. In reality, it is easier to be a successful entrepreneur than a bureaucrat. The entrepreneur acts with instinct and good common sense, while a bureaucrat has to know and follow the strict rules of the system.

The key to becoming an entrepreneur lies in the implementation of basic concepts and, as the title of this book suggests, there are only 11 simple secrets to learn to make it happen. But there is no need for you to carry out this task with the precision of a military field manual. The secrets are simple to learn, but don’t let their simplicity fool you:

Secret 1: Build parallel interests.

Secret 2: Be an architect of the future.

Secret 3: Be decisive, multifaceted, and ethical to a fault.

Secret 4: Know the risk — measure the reward.

Secret 5: Communication — be a shower not a teller.

Secret 6: Power to the people.

Secret 7: Become a trust builder.

Secret 8: Sharing wealth increases wealth.

Secret 9: Be constant, consistent, and concise.

Secret 10: Treat important people like important people.

Secret 11: Do simple things — simply do them.

Learning These Secrets

The important thing to remember in putting these 11 practical secrets to work in your life and in your business is to remember that together, they present a cohesive philosophy for being an entrepreneur. When I say philosophy, I mean that these secrets are a way to think and behave, and as such, it’s extremely difficult to distill them into a series of steps the would-be entrepreneur can invoke like a some-assembly-required Christmas toy.

The reality is that these secrets do not stand alone. They are interdependent. It’s not like you can accept five of the secrets and ignore the others. This really is an all-or-nothing proposition — a little like constructing a building. Each of the beams used in a building are strong and, in and of themselves, important. However, no single beam or even several are enough to support the building. They all need to be used and put in their right place. When in place, they support each of the other beams. Using the secrets to build an entrepreneurial culture is much the same.

Copyright © 2008 Robert W. MacDonald. All rights reserved.

The above is an excerpt from the book Beat the System

by Robert W. MacDonald

Published by John Wiley & Sons, Inc.; October 2007;$24.95US/$29.99CAN; 978-0-470-17549-1

Copyright © 2008 Robert W. MacDonald. All rights reserved.

Author

Robert W. MacDonald is a true visionary and business contrarian who rose from a door-to-door insurance salesman to the very pinnacle of the corporate world. He was the founder, CEO, and chairman of LifeUSA, a life insurance company which was formed in 1987 and sold to Allianz SE for $500 million. He retired as chairman and CEO of Allianz North America. He is also the author of Cheat to Win: The Honest Way to Break All the Dishonest Rules in Business.



Jeffery

“Terrible” Terry Tate asked:


Undefeated after the past 4 games and Eli looking better than his older brother the question needs to be asked…will the NY Giants return to the Superbowl this year? In my eyes it dosen’t seem like such a farfetched idea after seeing them play.

Heather

Jacob asked:


Do you become the team that defeats history or the team that will be the loser to history. You tell me!

Leo

Dennis Arthur asked:


Seeing as we are less than 2 weeks removed from one of the more exciting post-seasons to come along in recent memory (congrats to the NY Giants), it seems like an opportune time to discuss a couple of different playoff systems that both found success in 2007, one with a 5-1 ATS record and the other with a perfect 3-0 mark against the number.

Handicapping the post-season effectively requires a different outlook than the regular season and while some of the trends that I use between September and December are valid in January as well, most of my post-season selections are based on roughly 6 different trends that are specific to the playoffs only, all of which have found great success in the past 14 years.

The 2 that will be the focus of this article are fairly simple in nature and with a small amount of work on your part, they can become valuable handicapping tools for you in the 2008 Playoffs.

The first one involves an interesting stat that I have found to be very effective in predicting spread winners in the playoffs: Strength of Victory (SOV).

SOV is essentially the ‘half-brother’ of Strength of Schedule (SOS). The only difference, is that, instead of totaling up the won/loss records of all opponents faced, we are only going to look at the won/loss record for the opponents that a team has defeated. This calculation will obviously take less effort for lousy teams (Miami’s SOV of 0.31 from 2007 doesn’t take long to calculate) and more time for some of the better teams in the league.

A good example from the 2007 season is Kansas City and their SOV of 0.47, which was achieved by defeating 4 opponents (Minnesota, San Diego, Cincinnati and Oakland) that finished the regular season with a combined record of 30-34.

The league average for SOV is usually only around 0.400 and Kansas City did manage to tie for second in this category, with Atlanta and New England (one of the few statistical area’s where the ‘07 Chiefs were near the top of the league).

So, what does SOV have to do with successfully picking winners in the playoffs? It’s simple really–since 1994, playoff teams that have a lower SOV than their opponent, are 88-57 (60.7%) ATS for a tidy profit of $2,530.00 ($110 wagered to win back $100).

There is only one more significant condition that needs to be added to this trend and that is: the team with the lower SOV must also have had a higher straight-up winning percentage in the previous season (LS WP).

Adding this 3rd and final condition creates a 40-6 ATS situation that was 5-1 in the ‘07 playoffs and has never been below the .500 mark versus the number in the past 14 years.

Interestingly enough, this situation has a fairly even split between playing on home teams and road teams as well as favourites and underdogs. Almost two-thirds of teams in the league have been involved since 1994.

The next Playoff system I would like to look at (#90) also relies on only 2 different conditions (in addition to the specification of looking at only Playoff games, of course). This trend has been almost perfect since 1994: 21-1 ATS, with it’s only loss coming in the 2003 post-season, when it went 5-1.

It’s success is based on teams that are looking for ‘revenge’ as a result of a SU LOSS in the last game played against their current opponent, either in the current season, or one of the previous 2 seasons. I should further clarify that the team in this situation must have also been a favourite in this previous game, making it an upset win for their current opponent.

Just a brief word about past meetings: When looking at these games, I basically break them into 2 different classifications: LM2 and LM4. This particular trend uses the LM2 classification (the last meeting occurred in the current, or last 2 seasons) while the LM4 type extends further back to include a previous meeting as far back as 4 seasons ago. Depending on the exact circumstance that is being addressed from a previous game, an LM4 classification will sometimes be more effective while in other cases, a game needs to be more recent and I therefore use the LM2 type.

I do analyze a total of 20 different stats from past meetings such as rushing and passing yardage, penalty yardage, time of possession and turnovers, etc. But, it’s usually the final score itself that provides the most insight into who will cover in a current game.

Past meetings that end up as an ‘upset’ or that finish with a 4th Quarter Comeback or a Clutch Win are exactly the kind of games that leave one team or the other looking forward to the next meeting where things can be ‘put right’.

And what better time of the year to exact some revenge than under the glare and spotlight of the NFL Playoffs? This is shown by the fact that since 1994, Playoff teams that lost SU as a favourite versus their current opponent in their last meeting (LM2 classification) are outstanding versus the line: 32-10 ATS (76.2%) for a profit of $2,100 (wagering $110 to win back $100 on each game).

For those that want to take things one step further: if we add the condition that this teams season over/under average (OV%) is at least 50% (meaning, they have gone over the number in at least half their games), the record for this situation becomes 21-1 (95.5%) ATS since 1994.

Here are all the details on both of these systems.

(Notes: ASMR stands for Average Spread Margin Rating. A positive rating indicates a trend that is stronger than average versus the line, negative–weaker than average. TDIS% is the percentage of teams in the league that have been involved in this situation at one time or another. WT% is the percentage of teams that are .500 or better and SPR is the average spread for teams in this situation. For more details, please consult Page 13 of my 2007 NFL Game Sheets Guide.)

System #65 Summary

Primary Conditions (Building Blocks)

1) Playoff Game.

2) Opponent has a higher season Strength of Victory (SOV).

3) Last Seasons Winning Percentage (LS WP) greater than Opponent’s LS WP.

Secondary Conditions (Tighteners)

1) None.

System Stats

ASMR: -0.2

Home%: 53.2

Dog%: 38.3

TDIS%: 62.5

WT%: 100.0

SPR: -1.22

Top Teams: SEA(6); NE(5); PHI(5); DEN(4)

System Records

Overall (Since ‘94): 40-6 ATS

2007 Season: 5-1 ATS

2006 Season: 3-1 ATS

2005 Season: 4-1 ATS

2004 Season: 4-0 ATS

Last 3 Results. Pick in Brackets.

2007 WK20–NE 21 SD 12 (SD +14) W

2007 WK19–SD 28 IND 24 (SD +9) W

2007 WK19–GB 42 SEA 20 (SEA +7) L

System #90 Summary

Primary Conditions (Building Blocks)

1) Playoff Game.

2) Straight-up FAV loss versus this Opponent in Current or L2 Seasons (LM2).

Secondary Conditions (Tighteners)

1) Season Over% (OV%) >= 50

System Stats

ASMR: -1.8

Home%: 34.8

Dog%: 52.2

TDIS%: 43.8

WT%: 100.0

SPR: -0.33

Top Teams: DEN(3); PIT(3); IND(2); JAC(2)

System Records

Overall (Since ‘94): 21-1 ATS

2007 Season: 3-0 ATS

2006 Season: 1-0 ATS

2005 Season: 1-0 ATS

2004 Season: 1-0 ATS

Last 3 Results. Pick in Brackets.

2007 WK20–NYG 23 GB 20 (NYG +7.5) W

2007 WK19–NE 31 JAC 20 (JAC +13) W

2007 WK18–JAC 31 PIT 29 (PIT +2.5) W



Vera